Democrats Need To Forget the Lessons of the 2024 Election

Things are very different now.

Image by Gage Skidmore, CC

Democrats tend to hyper focus on their most recent election losses. As political scientist Seth Masket has pointed out, after they lose an election, Republicans tend to double down. Democrats, on the other hand, tend to panic and scrabble towards the center, convinced that if they don’t they will never be electable again.

This dynamic has been in full effect following the 2024 Democratic defeat. The party has had a full-blown meltdown as it tries to assimilate its defeat and figure out the best way forward. Social media, and media, have been a howling void of accusations and counter-accusations. Harris moved too far to the left; Harris moved too far to the right; we need younger candidates; we need to only nominate white men; we need to entirely rework Democratic messaging; we need to fire consultants; we need more populism; we need more centrism. And on and on.

I have pretty strong feelings myself about what the Democratic party should do and what it shouldn’t do (throwing trans people under the bus is disgusting and immoral, for example.) But I think there’s little point in talking about these dos and don’ts in the context of the 2024 election. It’s true that that election was only six months ago. But in politics six months can be a lifetime—and with the Trump administration, six months is a lifetime plus an eternity of torment plus another eternity of worse torment on top of that.

Things, in short, are very different now. As such, Democrats’ obsession with the last fight is misguided, and worse than misguided. We need to look ahead, right now, if there are going to be any more elections to lose.

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There’s a different incumbent now

Again, there are a wide range of interpretations and arguments about what Democrats could have done differently in 2024. But I think everyone pretty much would agree that the election was powerfully shaped by the fact that Joe Biden’s job approval was terrible. In the last year of his presidency he was almost entirely under 40% in polls, and his disapproval was 15 to 20 points higher. Kamala Harris was a much more popular figure, but the widespread loathing of the incumbent with the D beside his name was a huge burden which she ultimately was unable to overcome.

Democrats post 2024 feel they have to change something. But the biggest change has already happened. Biden is no longer president; his popularity or lack thereof is irrelevant.

Meanwhile, Trump has done everything he can to end his honeymoon period as quickly as possible. He started his term with a +8 net approval; in less than three months, he’s cratered his support, which is now at -6. Voters in particular loathe Trump’s handling of the economy, even though that was a particular strength of his in polling before the election.

Trump’s popularity falling off a cliff has already notably changed the dynamic of elections. Democrats have been crushing Republicans in specials in the new Trump era.

Democratic-aligned candidate Susan Crawford won a Wisconsin special election for a key Supreme Court seat by 10 points, despite tens of millions of dollars in propaganda spent in the race by billionaire co-president Elon Musk; Trump won the state by a point in November.

Even that eleven point swing seems paltry compared to Florida specials, though, in which Ds overperformed by 22 points and 16 points; not quite enough to win very red seats, but a massive shift nonetheless. And in a deep red Trump +15 PA state Senate seat, Ds actually scored a stunning, narrow upset victory.

Part of Democratic strength is because Dems are now doing better with educated voters; basically anyone paying attention hates Trump, and people with more education are more likely to pay attention. Those people are also more likely to vote in midterms.

But Crawford overshot the margin you’d expect even given the Democratic midterm advantage. Predicting the future is difficult, but vibes, outcomes, and, crucially, the unpopular president occupying the White House, have shifted greatly since November.

Not just election results

Trump’s unpopularity is a major change from November. But how he’s achieved that unpopularity is as least as important.

The November election was largely about the economic fallout from Covid; the electorate was angry about inflation and other economic dislocations, like steep housing costs. There were certainly other issues (Gaza, abortion rights, trans rights, Trump’s crimes, immigration). But I think almost everyone would agree that perceptions of the economy were a core driver of media coverage and of voter choices.

Trump and Republicans still burble on about the evils of Joe Biden’s economy. But they sound ludicrously out of touch when they do. That’s because Trump has aggressively, maliciously, and obsessively attacked America’s economic well-being since January.

Trump has fired tens of thousands of federal workers; his massive tariffs are functionally a $1300 tax increase on every American family. The chaotic tariff implementation has caused terrifying fluctuations in the stock market, threatening people’s retirement savings. He’s also attacking Social Security, with deep staffing cuts which could make it impossible for many people to access benefits. In addition, his rabid, cruel deportation policy has endangered businesses that rely on migrant labor, while his terrifying mistreatment of visitors to the US is likely to badly damage tourism. Many experts believe we’re heading into a recession, if we’re not in one already. It’s no surprise that the bottom is falling out of consumer confidence.

And that’s just the beginning. Trump is gutting the VA, a move that will catastrophically impact veteran health care. He’s destroying the government functions that respond to crises like measles outbreaks and storms. He’s threatened to annex Canada and Greenland; he’s abandoned Ukraine; he’s greenlit more Israel war crimes after a brief, half-hearted cease fire. And of course he’s defying the Supreme Court and asserting the government’s right to kidnap anyone—citizen or noncitizen—off the street and send them to slave labor camps for life.

Trump is a rolling, ongoing, metastasizing crisis for basically every person in the US. It’s difficult to know exactly how this will play out in voting (which Trump is also of course attempting to destroy.) But one thing is clear: Trump has transformed the country, transformed political debate, and created a vastly different (and worse) economic status quo. The entire context of the next election is going to be, therefore, vastly different than the last one.

Think about Kamala 2025

Again, you can argue back and forth about what Harris should or shouldn’t have done in 2024. But given Trump’s cratering approval and the precipitous decline in consumer confidence, and in light of how close 2024 was, it seems fairly clear that if we had a Harris/Trump rematch tomorrow, Harris would win, and probably by a comfortable margin.

This doesn’t mean that Harris is the best possible Democratic candidate, nor that Harris is the candidate I would prefer in 2028. What it means, though, is that it’s largely futile to try to backtrack and figure out what Harris could have done differently when the electoral status quo has changed so monumentally.

Obsessing about how to address problems in the last campaign isn’t just futile; it’s dangerous. The Democratic obsession with capturing Trump 2024 voters has led them to adopt a defensive, conciliatory posture—demonstrated most egregiously by Chuck Schumer whipping votes to pass Trump’s continuing resolution, tossing aside any possible leverage to block Trump’s tariffs or comply with Supreme Court decisions or block DOGE or do basically anything.

Elections are important; political parties like Democrats are understandably focused on elections. But focusing solely on the last election can prevent you from responding to real, ongoing threats right now. As just one example, if Trump can send anyone he wants in the US to torture camps on foreign soil, what’s to stop him from kidnapping Democratic candidates in key races and shipping them abroad, never to be seen again? What’s to stop him from just seizing election workers at key precincts and imprisoning them on election day, preventing Democratic precincts from voting? If there’s no rule of law, there’s no rule of law; in a tyranny, out-party electoral strategy becomes mostly superfluous.

You need to learn from past mistakes. But one crucial past mistake for Democrats has been focusing solely on elections rather than fighting fascism between elections. As Adam Bonica points out in a recent post, the major failure of the Democrats in the Biden years was refusing to hold powerful insurrectionists accountable. The fear that prosecutions would be partisan—and that they’re result in election losses—paralyzed Biden, a Democratic Congress, and Attorney General Merrick Garland. Rather than immediately moving to end Trump’s role in public life, Democrats hoped he'd go away. Then when he didn’t, they bet everything on just never losing an election again.

Some Democrats are making the same mistakes. Gretchen Whitmer tried to make nice with Trump at the White House and ended up trying to cover her face from the cameras as Trump signed ugly EO’s and used her as a prop. Gavin Newsom started a podcast so he could have friendly chats with far right MAGA fascist assholes. He thought it would give him crossover appeal and position him for the 2028 election. Instead his approval has sunk like a stone. Meanwhile, Congressowoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Corey Booker have generated a ton of goodwill by vocally, enthusiastically denouncing Trump and promising to lead the fight against him.

Newsom and Whitmer have badly damaged their electoral ambitions. But, one more time, focusing solely on elections is a big part of the problem. Trump has launched an all out assault on the Constitution and on the American people. There is little precedent for the situation we find ourselves in, and obsessively trying to relitigate and rewin 2024, or 2016, is pointless and dangerous. Democrats need to fight for democracy; they need to fight Trump. The alternative is not an election loss. The alternative is fascism.