McConnell Conspiracy Theories Are Doomer Nonsense

And doomer nonsense helps the fascists.

Image source: Charles J. Sharp, CC

Kentucky Senator and former Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been hospitalized for nebulous health issues for about six weeks, since June 14. Communication from McConnell has been sparse, and while his office has said he’s improving and released a picture on July 12 and a statement yesterday, people have inevitably insisted that he’s dead. That has led in turn to a slew of nonsense claims (on social media and even in regular media) that McConnell and/or the Republican party are lying about McConnell’s health in order to nefariously seize some sneaky advantage, which the Democrats could stop if only they would be sneakier themselves.

This is all nonsense. Currently in the Senate you have to actually be on the floor to vote. McConnell has not been able to be on the floor, which means the Republicans are down a vote. This is pretty much the best outcome Democrats can hope for in a deep red seat. Instead of having a 53-47 majority, the Republicans now have a 52-47 majority. This is a win! Why are people upset at a win?

I think people are upset at a win because doomerism is really satisfying. There’s empowerment in saying that you are in the know and understand the true power and cunning of the other side, and the true weakness and treachery of your supposed allies. Acknowledging that the other side can fuck up and that sometimes your side is playing it right means admitting that there is hope, and hope can be a vulnerable thing. Doomerism feels safer—even when it objectively makes you weaker and helps the fascists.

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No, there is no way to put a Democrat in that seat

As is the generally the case with conspiracy theories, the exact claims are vague and shifting and based on varying degrees of ignorance. But the broad claim is that if McConnell stepped down, somehow a Democrat, or at least a better Republican, would replace him, leaving us stronger than we are currently with Republicans down a vote in the Senate.

There is no credible version of this argument. Let’s go through some of the variations.

If McConnell steps down, Democratic governor Andy Beshear can appoint a Democrat.

This is false. A 2024 Kentucky law requires empty Senate seats to be filled by special election; the governor does not appoint a replacement.

But isn’t that law unconstitutional?

Yes, Beshear has suggested that the 2024 law may violate the state Constitution. So, if McConnell dies or steps down, Beshear could well try to appoint a replacement—at which point there would be a lot of legal back and forth, probably leaving the seat empty for a good while. Which is, again, the outcome we currently have.

In any case, Beshear can’t challenge the law until the seat is empty. And the seat is not empty.

Why doesn’t Beshear just declare the seat empty and appoint a Democrat then?!

Again, see above about why Beshear is almost certainly not going to be able to appoint a Democrat.

But in addition, Beshear has literally no power to declare the seat empty. Were he to say, “the seat is empty,” it would have exactly the same legal force as me saying the seat is empty and appointing a Democrat. Governors have zero say in when a Senate seat opens. The only one who has a say is the Senator in question—and/or the Senate as a whole, which can expel members with a two-third majority vote.

The seat is not vacant until McConnell dies or resigns. He hasn’t resigned. And, while I know conspiracy theorists will scoff, he’s almost certainly not dead. There would be a death certificate; the hospital would have a lot of incentives not to lie about it. He’s probably incapacitated. He may well not be able to return to the Senate this term (which, to be clear, would be ideal.) But he’s still breathing and he’s not willing to let go of the seat. (Which benefits Democrats!)

Isn’t McConnell stalling so there’s no special election and he can keep Thomas Massie out of the seat?

This is one of the most bizarre variations. People have decided that if McConnell vacates the seat before early August, there will be a special election, which somehow Thomas Massie will win. So Republicans are denying McConnell is dead to deny Massie the seat.

First of all, Massie got stomped when running for reelection in his own district earlier this year; his opposition to Trump has destroyed his standing in the party. There’s zero evidence that he could win a statewide primary race.

Second, the whole claim that there’s a deadline in the first place is gibberish. It seems to be based on the fact that after notification there is 63 days to hold an election, some garbled math, and the assumption that the election would have to be held by or before the general election.

But in fact, there’s no reason a special couldn’t be held in late November or December to fill the seat for a few weeks before the winner of the general election takes over. So there is no deadline. It’s nonsense.

Also, there’s no primary! According to CNBC, “Because of the compressed timeline, Kentucky’s political parties would choose their nominees for the special election.”

So Massie couldn’t run an insurgent campaign. *Nobody* could run an insurgent campaign. The parties would each pick a candidate, and in deep red Kentucky the Republican would almost certainly win the opportunity to hold a seat for a few months before another Republican (or more likely the same Republican) is seated for the new term.

And the worst arguments

Shouldn’t Beshear fight anyway to show Democrats are fighting fighters?!

No. Fighting to hand the opposition a Senate seat does not show you’re a fighter. It shows you’re a foolish dipshit.

Again, Democrats have a major win as long as McConnell squats in the seat and can’t vote. The Republicans have unilaterally abandoned a deep red Senate seat. If Beshear does nothing, Republicans are down a seat. If Beshear declares the seat empty, he gives the Republican supermajority an excuse to impeach him because he doesn’t have the power to declare the seat empty—and in fact the McConnell will just stay in the seat, because Beshear has no power to remove him..

Democrats often fail to fight. They should be criticized when they don’t fight. But this is like saying, “Chuck Schumer must put on his green lantern power ring and give Republicans an additional seat in the Senate!” First of all, that is impossible. Second of all, this would hurt Democrats! What are we even doing here?

Okay, but what about the principle that voters should have Senate representation?

Voters in Kentucky have again and again elected McConnell, one of the most evil and destructive figures to ever serve in the Senate, which is saying something. He has repaid them by trying to destroy democracy and install a judicial Christofascist oligarchy. He sort of kind of doesn’t like Trump, but that doesn’t make up for his decades of work on behalf of white supremacy and authoritarianism.

I think everyone should have representation. I do not think we owe it to Republican voters in Kentucky to bend over backwards to help them with their long-term efforts to impose fascism on the rest of us. And as for Democrats in Kentucky, who have been deliberately and brutally denied representation and power, I think that the best way to give them some level of voice in the Senate is to sit back and let McConnell’s seat sit empty for as long as possible.

Demanding a fight when there is no reason to fight is boneheaded. Demanding we fight to help the fascists is somehow even more boneheaded than that. The Republicans are punching themselves in the face. We do not have a moral imperative to stop them. We have a moral imperative to get out of the way.

People want Republicans to be powerful

If Chuck Schumer were sick and not voting for weeks, Democrats would be able to do the math and would be enraged that Schumer was damaging the party by refusing to step down. Why is it then so hard to see that McConnell is fucking over Republicans? If you abandon your seat and won’t let anyone else fill it, you are hurting your party. This is not rocket science.

I think the confusion is based in a kind of doomerism. People see McConnell specifically, and Republicans in general, as scheming cheaters who are always laser-focused on destroying the republic and crushing their enemies. Didn’t McConnell refuse to seat Supreme Court Justice Merrick Garland? Didn’t he rush through the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett? Hasn’t he enabled Trump at (almost) every turn? He’s a malevolent genius; there’s no way he would refuse to step down unless he knew he was helping Republican’s fascist goals. Right?

Again, McConnell is a deeply evil figure. But that doesn’t mean he’s a genius, and it doesn’t mean that his particular evil always advances the goals of his evil party. We all know that Trump is an incompetent fool who regularly does things like launch and lose pointless wars and launch failed coups. But his opponents are reluctant to extrapolate even a little bit.

Why is McConnell sitting in the hospital, weakening his party? Probably because he’s an entitled asshole who thinks he deserves to serve out his term. Also he likes being a powerful Senator and doesn’t want to give it up, or admit that he’s replaceable—even though there’s going to be a general election to replace him in November. People who have held power for decades in a death grip are loath to give it up, even if that ends up damaging the causes they devoted their lives to (see Ginsburg, Ruth.)

But the fact that Republican iniquity and entitlement can sometimes bite them in the ass doesn’t fit well with our need for undefeatable foes. Taking the win means accepting that McConnell was maybe always just kind of a stubborn asshole who didn’t have any great plan, but just mulishly leveraged the systemic advantage our system gives rural white voters.

Attributing great skill and cleverness to McConnell doesn’t make us clever and savvy; it mostly just makes us unable to make smart choices to oppose him. Similarly, dumping on Beshear is satisfying because it feels like we could easily win if only our leaders weren’t so feckless. And sometimes our leaders are feckless. But the main problem is that a lot of people just like fascism—and to beat them we need, not green lantern leaders, but a long slow slog in which we build on wins, cut losses, and refuse to give up.

Conspiratorial thinking can feel empowering because it allows us to see ourselves as possessed of secret knowledge. We understand the true fearsomeness of the enemy; we understand the secret lever of victory which the spineless refuse to pull.

The problem is that conspiratorial thinking is built on lies and nonsense, and as such is a bad basis on which to defeat very real and dangerous opponents. When you demand Democrats take steps to help Republicans obtain an extra Senate seat, you’ve very much lost the plot. Not least because when you make those demands you invalidate yourself and your allies and movements. We desperately need to push Democrats to be better and to oppose fascism in every way they can. But if you keep demanding they do impossible and counterproductive things in the name of garbled nonsense and supposed fightiness, they are going to feel justified in ignoring you.

If the fascist threat is real (it is!) we have a responsibility to defeat it. That means putting forward aggressive but real strategies for change. And it also means recognizing when you have an advantage and building on it rather than going into a rage spiral over nonsense. There is no easy path to victory. But if Mitch McConnell insists on tripping over his withered dick, for god’s sake, let him.