The Global Anti-Incumbent Post-Covid Wave

In Brazil, UK, France and the US, the fallout of covid is kneecapping incumbents.

Image: Keir Starmer by Simon Dawson, OGL

Last week the British Labour party ended 14 years of conservative rule in spectacular fashion, gaining 214 seats to give them a 412/121 majority. With the Liberal Democrats also gaining more than 60 seats mostly at conservative expense, it was the worst Tory defeat in history. ‘

Early in the night, exit polls suggested the fascist, nativist Reform party would pick up 14 seats, and pundits began to turn the UK election into part of the global story about rising fascism. But the reports of fascist victory were premature.  Reform got a good number of votes, but in the end only won 4 seats—the same number as the surprisingly successful Greens.

Something similar happened in France. After the first round of voting, in which the far right had a frighteningly strong showing, pundits were convinced that the fascists were ascendant. But on Sunday, a hastily assembled leftist coalition won the most seats in Parliament, beating back the right and shocking centrist French President Emmanuel Macron, whose Prime Minister was forced to resign.

So if pundits want to deploy some sort of international master narrative, they’re going to have to find something other than, “fascists are winning”. And one place I’d like to suggest they look is at the microscopic elephant in the room—Covid.

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