The Twilight of Schumer
His days as leader look numbered.
This week, led by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 40 Democratic Senators out of 47 voted to freeze shipments of bulldozers to Israel. Then 36 Democratic Senators voted to block shipments of bombs to Israel.
This is a major milestone in US Israel policy; before this vote, unquestioning, bottomless aid to Israel, whatever Israel’s policies, no matter its violation of US human rights law, has been the bipartisan consensus. While this is still the official stance of the Republican party, the majority of Democrats are no longer onboard.
As I’ve discussed here before, this change has been underway for some time. Democratic voters have swung powerfully against Israel as its policies have become more openly genocidal and reckless in the last years. Anti-Zionists like Zohran Mamdani (as NY mayor) and Analilia Mejia (in a NJ House race) have begun to win high profile primaries and special elections. Democratic presidential hopefuls have distanced themselves from hard-core Zionism—as witnessed in this Senate vote, in which Mark Kelly and Ruben Gellego—both moderate Arizona Senators with presidential ambitions—voted to condition aid.
For Palestine, and for the world, the fact that Democrats are moving to detach itself from Israel’s grim colonial project is very good news. Also good news: this vote suggests that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is going to be ousted from his position sooner rather than later.
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Schumer fails to keep up
Schumer’s approval ratings have been flashing danger signs for a while. Democrats were so angry when he led his caucus to a humiliating government funding backdown in early 2025 that he had to cancel a book tour. Democrats in the House urged left standard bearer Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to primary him in 2028. Since then he’s been floating below 40% in his home state of New York; if Ocasio-Cortez doesn’t challenge him, someone is going to.
To some degree, leaders are supposed to take the blame for ugly choices in order to protect their members. But—as the anger in the House indicates—Schumer hasn’t been popular with his colleagues either. His centrism, caution, and reflexive bi-partisanship seem ill-suited to the current moment. And so does is Zionism.
Schumer, like President Joe Biden, has been an enthusiastic Zionist for decades. This year at a gathering of Jewish Zionists, he said that one of his key jobs as leader was to “fight for aid to Israel, all the aid that Israel needs.” Last year he told New York Times Zionist columnist Bret Stephens that “My job is to keep the left pro-Israel.”
Obviously, politicians tailor their words to their audience, and it’s not surprising that Schumer emphasized his own Zionism while talking to other Zionists. But Zionists are, also obviously, not the only audience, and Schumer (again like Biden) has shown himself to be uniquely unable to navigate the changing politics of his base on this issue.
Last year Schumer shockingly refused to say if he had voted for Zohran Mamdani, even though he was running against Eric Adams and Andrew Cuomo, two corrupt hacks with ugly connections to Trump himself. In contrast, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is also a Zionist, bowed to party pressure and endorsed Mamdani with a show of enthusiasm. Jeffries notably also does not keep saying that his job is to advance Zionism, rather than to serve his constituents and his caucus.
Schumer’s weakness—and the way that weakness is tied to his Zionism—has been highlighted in the current Democratic primary in Maine. Schumer recruited Governor Janet Mills, a pro-Israel politician in her late 70s, to run for the seat. Bernie Sanders backed political neophyte, Graham Platner, who opposes unconditional military aid to Israel. Platner has said homophobic, sexist, and racist things in the past, and last week used the r word slur; I am not a fan.
Nonetheless he has pulled away in polls, and other Senators have endorsed him, including Elizabeth Warren, who has been low-key calling for Schumer’s ouster. Chris Murphy, one plausible Schumer replacement, has also spoken enthusiastically about Platner. The Maine primary is, in other words, functioning as a proxy fight for Senate leadership. It’s a fight Schumer is losing.
Schumer can no longer represent his caucus
As I’ve discussed above, there are a range of reasons that Schumer is flailing, and, for that matter, failing. He could, in theory, recover in popularity, especially if Democrats regain Senate control in the midterms and he is able to take some credit (and he certainly deserves some credit for recruiting Mary Peltola in Alaska, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Roy Cooper in North Carolina.)
But the bombs and bulldozers vote is not so easily finessed. Schumer was one of only 7 Democrats who bucked the party and voted to put no conditions or restrictions on any aid to Israel. Purple state, centrist Senators like Ruben Gallego, Mark Kelly, Jean Shaheen, and Angus King all voted for restrictions. And the trend is clear; if another such vote is held in 2028, it seems likely that Schumer will be even more isolated—to say nothing of what happens if Democrats win the presidency. Virtually every candidate now running, up to and including the flaming asshole that is Rahm Emanuel, have said that they want more restrictions on military aid.
Schumer is ideologically committed to a position opposite that of the majority of his caucus and the majority of his voters. And this isn’t some marginal issue; it’s one of the key foreign policy questions of the moment, intertwined with a major partisan war which has defined Trump’s presidency and to which Democrats are rightly, wholeheartedly, and all-but-unanimously opposed.
It is not feasible, in the long term, or even really in the short term, to have the Democratic leader of the Senate caucus so opposed to the policy of that caucus on a core issue that he will not endorse or vote for candidates like Mamdani who espouse it, and will not vote with his colleagues on key measures. It’s not as unworkable as having a pro-life Democrat as Majority Leader, but it’s starting to get there. And it looks like the disconnect will get worse and worse as the war continues and Democratic sentiment continues to shift against Israel.
Schumer is 75 and (especially given his polling) may well be thinking of retiring rather than seeking another term. But I think this vote is another indication that his standing is rapidly eroding. I don’t know if he can win a speakership battle in 2027. I don’t think he knows either. But I suspect he’s less confident after this week’s vote than ever before.
The Maine race is an example of Schumer’s complete failure as a leader and recruiter of talent (the latter is what he so often boasts about when saying he should remain in his role). Unseating Collins should have been a priority after 2020 (and still within reach even if Harris had won). But Mills is a terrible choice — her age alone suggests Dems learned nothing from Biden and Feinstein, at least regarding voter sentiment on the matter. She’s not even that popular in Maine. Schumer could have recruited someone who would contrast better with Platner and would actually run a vigorous campaign (Platner is everywhere).
Schumer also screwed up Michigan. He backed Stevens — a baffling choice — rather than McMorrow (arguably bc Stevens is more loyal to both Schumer and Israel).
Look, Schumer doesn’t have to back the progressive/Sanders choice, but he should at least support viable candidates in the center left lane.
They always let the old guys hang around too long. Term limits!