In 2016 it seemed impossible (to me) that he could be elected. Of course, I live in true blue western Oregon, in a bubble that skews my vision of everywhere else. Also for some reason I have this Pollyanna idea that people are generally good. Anyways, Trumps take over of the GOP has eliminated a non-reactionary Conservative Party. In Oregon, GOP-ers who spoke out against Trump’s lawlessness and terrible decision making were kicked out of positions of power, and that happened everywhere. It will be interesting to watch what happens to the party post-Trump. Conservatives who truly believe in our constitution and in the rule of law have no home. I’d love to see us move beyond a two party system.
They'll become Democrats because that sounds EXACTLY like the core constituency of the Corporate Clinton Neoliberal Democratic Party—just look at Schmuck Schumer, the FINALLY retiring Notorious P-Lousy, and Neutered Hakeem Jeffries! To say nothing of Hillary Rodham Clinton, who GAVE us "President Donald Trump"....
Heh...wouldn't it be hilarious if Progressives took over the Republican Party again? Sadly, Bernie Sanders is too old to run as a "Liberal Republican", but maybe AOC or Jasmine Crockett could bring back the minority voters who fled after Nixon's "Southern Strategy" sucked the Dixiecrat poison out of the Democratic Party and into the Republicans.... 🥰
"After all, if Trump did worse than a generic Republican in 2024, it’s reasonable to question whether he has ever don’t better than a generic Republican."
KELSEY GRAMMER POLICE ALERT! I think you meant "done better" rather than "don't better", Noah....
I absolutely agree that voters in 2024 were largely motivated by inflation (and border control issues). I also agree that Trump does not have some special connection with the American people nor any special ability to communicate with them.
But Trump does have the MAGAs. The folks who even today will tell you he has brought down prices, ended eight wars, and has made other countries respect America.
Those folks do not constitute a large part of the population, nor even a majority of Republicans. But there are enough of them to move the needle when Trump is on the ballot. Without Trump on the ballot, they don't show up and that's probably at least a 5 point loss for the Republicans.
This is why I'm confident the Democrats will do well in the 2026 midterms and will win back the White House in 2028. MAGAs will not be so motivated to turn out for a Vance or even a Trump Junior.
So, the thing is that partisanship always motivates people. hard core trump voters are mostly hard core partisans; they'll vote for any gop.
I think that it's a bad idea to assume trump has some magic that other republicans can't manage. trump's "magic" is that he's the head of the party. when someone else is head of the party, they will also have the support of hard core partisans.
" trump's "magic" is that he's the head of the party. when someone else is head of the party, they will also have the support of hard core partisans."
I'm gonna haveta disagree with your de-ductive reasoning here, Noah....
It's comforting to think "Trump is nothing special", but sadly he IS special—boy, is he special! 😒 He is a complete and utter sociopath, a con artist who truly believes his own cons, cares for nothing other than his own ambition and self-aggrandizement, and has a five year-old's grasp of the world...which fits his core constituency like a rubber glove. He has that "something special" that Napoleon, Hitler, Mussolini, Mao and Elon Musk had/have, that ability to draw like-minded whinily-entitled peabrains to him like a magnet, and whose passion overwhelms the more rational thinking of people who sorta-kinda agree with him a LITTLE...?
His incessantly racist bullying populism is something few other Republicans (or functional human beings) can carry off successfully—look at what happened when Ron DeSanctimonius tried to pull that same shit in 2024! As bigoted and downright nasty as Republicans can be and really-o, truly-o WANT to be? They're incapable of keeping it up 24/7 and never wavering, because they're not sociopaths—they're just nasty, small-minded human beings who don't think of themselves as "bad people, really", and thus have a brake on their selfish ambitions and needs. For want of a better word, you might even call it a "conscience"—hard as that is to believe! 🤷♂️
In 2016 it seemed impossible (to me) that he could be elected. Of course, I live in true blue western Oregon, in a bubble that skews my vision of everywhere else. Also for some reason I have this Pollyanna idea that people are generally good. Anyways, Trumps take over of the GOP has eliminated a non-reactionary Conservative Party. In Oregon, GOP-ers who spoke out against Trump’s lawlessness and terrible decision making were kicked out of positions of power, and that happened everywhere. It will be interesting to watch what happens to the party post-Trump. Conservatives who truly believe in our constitution and in the rule of law have no home. I’d love to see us move beyond a two party system.
They'll become Democrats because that sounds EXACTLY like the core constituency of the Corporate Clinton Neoliberal Democratic Party—just look at Schmuck Schumer, the FINALLY retiring Notorious P-Lousy, and Neutered Hakeem Jeffries! To say nothing of Hillary Rodham Clinton, who GAVE us "President Donald Trump"....
Heh...wouldn't it be hilarious if Progressives took over the Republican Party again? Sadly, Bernie Sanders is too old to run as a "Liberal Republican", but maybe AOC or Jasmine Crockett could bring back the minority voters who fled after Nixon's "Southern Strategy" sucked the Dixiecrat poison out of the Democratic Party and into the Republicans.... 🥰
Hey, a person can dream!
"After all, if Trump did worse than a generic Republican in 2024, it’s reasonable to question whether he has ever don’t better than a generic Republican."
KELSEY GRAMMER POLICE ALERT! I think you meant "done better" rather than "don't better", Noah....
argh
Love this
I absolutely agree that voters in 2024 were largely motivated by inflation (and border control issues). I also agree that Trump does not have some special connection with the American people nor any special ability to communicate with them.
But Trump does have the MAGAs. The folks who even today will tell you he has brought down prices, ended eight wars, and has made other countries respect America.
Those folks do not constitute a large part of the population, nor even a majority of Republicans. But there are enough of them to move the needle when Trump is on the ballot. Without Trump on the ballot, they don't show up and that's probably at least a 5 point loss for the Republicans.
This is why I'm confident the Democrats will do well in the 2026 midterms and will win back the White House in 2028. MAGAs will not be so motivated to turn out for a Vance or even a Trump Junior.
So, the thing is that partisanship always motivates people. hard core trump voters are mostly hard core partisans; they'll vote for any gop.
I think that it's a bad idea to assume trump has some magic that other republicans can't manage. trump's "magic" is that he's the head of the party. when someone else is head of the party, they will also have the support of hard core partisans.
" trump's "magic" is that he's the head of the party. when someone else is head of the party, they will also have the support of hard core partisans."
I'm gonna haveta disagree with your de-ductive reasoning here, Noah....
It's comforting to think "Trump is nothing special", but sadly he IS special—boy, is he special! 😒 He is a complete and utter sociopath, a con artist who truly believes his own cons, cares for nothing other than his own ambition and self-aggrandizement, and has a five year-old's grasp of the world...which fits his core constituency like a rubber glove. He has that "something special" that Napoleon, Hitler, Mussolini, Mao and Elon Musk had/have, that ability to draw like-minded whinily-entitled peabrains to him like a magnet, and whose passion overwhelms the more rational thinking of people who sorta-kinda agree with him a LITTLE...?
His incessantly racist bullying populism is something few other Republicans (or functional human beings) can carry off successfully—look at what happened when Ron DeSanctimonius tried to pull that same shit in 2024! As bigoted and downright nasty as Republicans can be and really-o, truly-o WANT to be? They're incapable of keeping it up 24/7 and never wavering, because they're not sociopaths—they're just nasty, small-minded human beings who don't think of themselves as "bad people, really", and thus have a brake on their selfish ambitions and needs. For want of a better word, you might even call it a "conscience"—hard as that is to believe! 🤷♂️