I think you're wrong on this one. First of all, what Trump promises and what he gives or delivers bear absolutely no relation to each other (except perhaps as inverses). But just as important, if you know the fix is in and its going to be a shocker, even in a rising dictatorship you create some plausible explanation for it.
Everything we know about US politics -- all the fundamentals, history, trends, polls, and odors on the air -- tells us that the Republicans are going to get crushed, lose the House badly and most likely the Senate. If the fix is in -- if the combination of overt and covert schemes (e.g., electronic votecount manipulation) produce a different result -- the observers and analysts will be able to dig deep and say "Well, Jim, it looks like Trump's promise of $5,000 and [insert some other BS here] surprisingly won over those swing voters to the GOP side..."
See how it works? Gin up a rig, gin up some "organic" explanation for it such that the rig passes our stuffed-nose smell test. Not saying I know this will happen, just that Trump's promises of cash, or anything else, in no way rule it out.
“trump is just doing this as an excuse to stage a military coup” doesn’t change the fact that trump tried a coup once and failed badly when he was much more popular.
you haven’t explained how this is going to happen. trump can’t explain either.
I'm referring to something more diabolical than a military coup -- quieter and much more efficient: The possibility of electronic votecount manipulation (which is what Trump and MAGA have been screaming about for six years) cannot and should not be dismissed. "Trump is too incompetent" is not a good answer: Yes, he's incompetent at governing, but he has a genius for cheating and criming.
Beyond that, bros like Musk and Thiel and Ellison are *computer guys* -- they know how to get inside a very weakly secured system, which, fwiw, is built and programmed by three corps (ES&S, Liberty Vote, Hart InterCivic) with strong right-wing pedigrees and affiliations. Musk has already bragged to Ashley St. Clair about "space lasers" corrupting the shocking 2024 vote -- which may or may not have been idle boasting.
no one who is an actual expert thinks this is a realistic possibility. I really think this is just doomerism. there are lots of things to worry about; this isn't one.
I'll believe he (or more likely his more competent fellow Nazis) can't steal the midterms once it's all over and done and there's a democratic majority house and *maybe* a break even Senate.
The press is so goddamn in the tank for him that they'll fall all over themselves to help him sell any bullshit lie he spins to justify whatever he's going to do.
They're writing stories like that right now. If/when he cheats and produces some bullshit sharpie results for them to run they'll go all in because that's what will get them clicks and access.
I’m saving this article for those days when I need a political-participation pep talk. Thank you!
I always appreciate how clearly you lay out your thinking. It works really well for my brain, and is accessible and thought-provoking.
Thank you for doing this work.
He is not the kind of monster who is clever or plans beyond his obsession with himself.
And yes, thanks for the reminder.
Always good to read your thoughts.
I think you're wrong on this one. First of all, what Trump promises and what he gives or delivers bear absolutely no relation to each other (except perhaps as inverses). But just as important, if you know the fix is in and its going to be a shocker, even in a rising dictatorship you create some plausible explanation for it.
Everything we know about US politics -- all the fundamentals, history, trends, polls, and odors on the air -- tells us that the Republicans are going to get crushed, lose the House badly and most likely the Senate. If the fix is in -- if the combination of overt and covert schemes (e.g., electronic votecount manipulation) produce a different result -- the observers and analysts will be able to dig deep and say "Well, Jim, it looks like Trump's promise of $5,000 and [insert some other BS here] surprisingly won over those swing voters to the GOP side..."
See how it works? Gin up a rig, gin up some "organic" explanation for it such that the rig passes our stuffed-nose smell test. Not saying I know this will happen, just that Trump's promises of cash, or anything else, in no way rule it out.
“trump is just doing this as an excuse to stage a military coup” doesn’t change the fact that trump tried a coup once and failed badly when he was much more popular.
you haven’t explained how this is going to happen. trump can’t explain either.
I'm referring to something more diabolical than a military coup -- quieter and much more efficient: The possibility of electronic votecount manipulation (which is what Trump and MAGA have been screaming about for six years) cannot and should not be dismissed. "Trump is too incompetent" is not a good answer: Yes, he's incompetent at governing, but he has a genius for cheating and criming.
Beyond that, bros like Musk and Thiel and Ellison are *computer guys* -- they know how to get inside a very weakly secured system, which, fwiw, is built and programmed by three corps (ES&S, Liberty Vote, Hart InterCivic) with strong right-wing pedigrees and affiliations. Musk has already bragged to Ashley St. Clair about "space lasers" corrupting the shocking 2024 vote -- which may or may not have been idle boasting.
See https://whowhatwhy.org/politics/us-politics/push-comes-to-shove-the-unspeakable-threat-to-election-2026/ for more developed reasoning. It may not come to pass, but is too substantial a risk of too deadly a consequence to simply ignore.
no one who is an actual expert thinks this is a realistic possibility. I really think this is just doomerism. there are lots of things to worry about; this isn't one.
I'll believe he (or more likely his more competent fellow Nazis) can't steal the midterms once it's all over and done and there's a democratic majority house and *maybe* a break even Senate.
The press is so goddamn in the tank for him that they'll fall all over themselves to help him sell any bullshit lie he spins to justify whatever he's going to do.
the press is consistently printing stories about his unpopularity and how he’s going to get destroyed in a blue wave.
his fellow nazis aren’t really more competent, either.
They're writing stories like that right now. If/when he cheats and produces some bullshit sharpie results for them to run they'll go all in because that's what will get them clicks and access.
trump is massively unpopular. I think you underestimate the extent to which that makes him unpopular with the news media as well.
also, the news media doesn't have a button to hand trump control of the election either.