We Don’t Know What Harris Will Do On Gaza

Also! This Week's Writing 10/19/24

As I sometimes do, I thought I’d write a shortish post before we get to the list of what I’ve published this week.

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The grim consensus among progressives at the moment is that Kamala Harris, if she wins election, will continue President Joe Biden’s policy on Gaza. That means that she will continue arms sales and exert no real pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu as he continues his policy of war crimes, genocide, and murdering children.

Progressive fears here are reasonable. Harris has spoken more empathetically about Palestinian suffering than Biden has managed, and she declined to choose Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (an outspoken Zionist) as her Vice-President. But she’s also said repeatedly that she’d continue Biden’s policy, and has resisted calls to cease arming Israel. She refused to even let a pro-Harris Palestinian-American speak at the DNC. There’s plenty of grounds for despair.

I think there’s also at least some reason to qualify the despair, though. That’s because even if Harris did disagree with Biden, or even if she was willing to put more pressure on Israel, it seems unlikely she would say so right now.

Harris has refused to distinguish herself from Biden on anything, perhaps out of loyalty, or perhaps because she thinks it would alienate allies or donors. If she was going to distance herself from him, it seems unlikely it would be on Israel policy.

Military aid to Israel is an issue which starkly divides Democratic party voters, donors, and interest groups. Splitting with Biden would highlight and exacerbate those fractures. It could easily put her in a situation where she alienates pro-Palestinian voters because she’s associated with Biden’s policy while also alienating Zionist voters for contradicting Biden. It would certainly be a huge issue for the media, highlighting an issue which (again) divides Democratic voters.

In addition, Harris breaking with Biden could make pressuring Netanyahu, or negotiating with him, more difficult. He’s probably already stalling negotiations in hopes of a Trump presidency giving him a greenlight to ethnically cleanse the West Bank and Gaza with no pushback at all. If Harris openly said she’d cut off arms, the chances of him making any move towards a ceasefire before the election seem like they would get even lower (if that’s possible.)

Along those lines, it’s worth noting that Harris has probably had little input on Israel policy up to now. Vice Presidents can have some input in some areas, and Harris is reported to have swayed Biden to some extent on student debt (as one example.) But Biden is a longtime Zionist and has a lot of foreign policy experience. It is just not credible that she’s been a major force shaping Biden’s (dreadful) response.

This isn’t to say that Harris will change direction, or exert more pressure, if she gets into office. It’s just saying, if she were going to do that, she’d probably be saying more or less what she’s saying now. She’d position herself slightly to the left of Biden, insist their policies were the same, and wait to change course until she’s in office and actually has the authority to put her policies into action.

This isn’t a post urging people to vote one way or the other; I think people need to vote their conscience given Harris’ statements and the other options available. But I do think there’s at least some reason for hope that Harris may change course, or be pressured to change course, that isn’t there with Biden.

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Okay! here is!

This Week’s Writing 10/19/24

Politics

Kamala Harris shows up for Fox News viewers. (Public Notice)

If Trump wins, he will have unified GOP control. (EIH)

Why does Harris keep courting Republicans? (EIH)

Be skeptical of anti-establishment branding. (EIH)

Cultural criticism

Fear of revolutionary youth and Black people haunts Chicago occult films. (Chicago Reader)

I Saw the TV Glow embraces queer obscurity. (EIH)

The Silent Hour is a genre suspense film with a surprisingly thoughtful take on deafness and disability. (Chicago Reader)

Anna Kendrick’s directorial debut Woman of the Hour is a challenging look at patriarchal violence. (Chicago Reader)

Singer/musician Dawn Richard reinvents herself again. (Chicago Reader)

Nat Turner vs. Hollywood. (EIH)

Poetry

No poetry published this week, alas. But! here’s a brief one I have not placed elsewhere.

hurrying to
sit here
with you

That’s it! As always, please do consider becoming a paid subscriber: $50/year, $5/month. I can’t keep scribbling without you!