I agree with Noah’s analysis and identification of three possible scenarios. Here’s what I would add, both for analytical and framing purposes: The US Constitution has failed. That’s the starting point. The main thing the Constitution was designed to prevent was a tyrannical government led by a “king” or autocrat. The Orange-One-in-Charge has managed to create the structures and mechanisms for implementing tyranny by exploiting weaknesses in the Holy Framers’ sacred constitutional framework. So now what? Tom Geoghegan has some interesting suggestions:
I confess I'm not in love with where the U.S. is headed right now, and given we've never really punished the people who deserve to be punished for things like The Civil War, ending Reconstruction before we CRUSHED all rebellion out of the South for all time(!), Jim Crow, and Watergate? I doubt we're going to get the best case scenario....
But, I doubt we'll get the worst case, too, because Trump is an incompetent loon, "Project 2025" is one of those so-called "bright ideas" that won't survive contact with reality, and Stephen Miller is a bug to be crushed underfoot as soon as Trump either leaves or no longer wants him around.
"We've tried not punishing powerful criminals over and over and over again. It'd be really nice if just once we tried the other thing."
I know, I so don't get that part. We should've tried and convicted Nixon when we had the chance—no, we shouldn't have given up on Reconstruction after The Civil War so quickly, and we should've CRUSHED any remnants of The Confederacy under our Yankee boots! (I should talk—during Reconstruction my paternal Great-Grandfather was coming to America to dodge The Kaiser's draft, while my maternal Great-Grandfather was, if you believe my late Grandma, a horse thief out West.)
The book I'm writing has the Russian invasion of The Ukraine as a plot element, and I find myself having to have my Ukrainian female hero have to explain to the two NYPD detectives who are investigating who keeps trying to kill her why the U.S. is a better place to live than Russia...while Trump exists and is in power. I keep having Sam, the female detective, saying "I think you have an overly optimistic view of this country."
It's a balancing act, I don't mind telling you....
One thing that I don't think gets talked about nearly as much as it needs to in discussions about the future is the need to at the very least put some kind of legislative restraints on christianity and the church.
You can draw a straight line between christians demanding to be able to "teach the controversy" around evolution vs creation and the staunch denial of objective reality that underpins the entire republican...well, everything. The sadism and bigotry that forms the core republican ethos also draws directly from christianity and its charming penchant for gleeful genocide.
The Johnson amendment was a good idea and a step in the right direction, but it utterly failed. As evidenced by the christian fascist hellhole we're stuck with.
Bare minimum the church needs to lose its tax free status and there will need to be a concerted effort at the IRS and other agencies to crack down on churches trying to wiggle their way out of paying taxes by claiming they're something they're not.
While I'm whistling for the moon, I also think there needs to be a standardized curriculum teaching students about christianity's history of atrocities and its complicity in authoritarian and fascist regimes throughout history. Textbooks are going to have to be re-written to get the christian garbage out of them to begin with anyway. They should also be amended to state that jesus was a myth if he's mentioned at all.
That I'm not quite on board with. "All religions" didn't lead a fascist takeover of this country, *christianity* did. It's not fair to punish everyone for christianity's bullshit.
Plus, christianity is almost uniquely evil in its application, and inherently toxic in its theology. I know there are christians who think they can make it something that's actually good, but they're trying to turn lead into gold.
eh. most religions have major downsides...and there's some really toxic atheism too.
Some christians have done pretty amazing things in the name of christianity. some have done really horrible things. It's much like other traditions in that.
The atrocities outnumber the good things a huge margin, though. The sexual abuse that's endemic to the SBC and the catholic church alone outweigh anything good that's come out of it, to say nothing of things like the Magdalene laundries or the church's complicity in hitler's regime and the atrocities in the Congo Free State just off the top of my head.
I'm not saying other religions don't have problems, but critiquing other religions isn't my lane. and none of the other religions are the problem in the US. Christianity is, which is why I'm focused on it.
Abolitionism and the civil rights movement are pretty important.
I think it’s kind of pointless to do this kind of accounting, though, as if it’s a person and you can decide on its moral character. It’s a big, complicated tradition that’s lasted for 1000sof years and has really complicated influence on a whole range of movements and historical moments. It doesn’t have any one character or outcome. There’s food and bad; I think the thing to do is just to acknowledge that and try to work to fight the bad and make your own traditions and communities better.
Christianity is a huge umbrella. It includes people who work tirelessly to make life better for marginalized communities because they believe it is their mandate. I’m not comfortable demonizing those people’s beliefs (no matter how ridiculous I personally think they are, I don’t have the corner on absolute truth). By leaving out the dangers of all religions, you leave the door open for another faith to be twisted by the next group of powerful people with authoritarian tendencies. The problem isn’t Christianity- it’s the willingness of people to turn over their thinking to someone else in the name of a god. It’s the willingness of people to say, “if you don’t believe x, you don’t deserve rights.” It’s the willingness of men of various religions to say, “I own the women; god says so.”
These are universal problems with religion, even if Christianity is better at taking advantage of them on behalf of powerful men.
It’s the factory settings of the USA that worries me so much. Despite Europe’s engagement in colonialism and imperialism worldwide, nation-states on that continent didn’t necessarily start out being so explicitly racialized in the ways that America did. And I just recently found out that Canada has a Truth and Reconciliation Day to remember the forced internment of Indigenous people there. Can you imagine if the USA did something similar? America’s original sins keep holding us all back, time after time.
...Possibly because Canada completely abolished slavery when the UK did back in 1834, a movement which started in 1793 with the Act Against Slavery (limited to "Upper Canada" which was British territory then), and did it without fighting a war, then neglecting to PUNISH the perpetrators(!), first.
I see one flaw in your best case scenario. Abolish ICE, but do not liberalize immigration. We have two data points, now and the early 1900s that tell us that when the foreign born population reaches 15%, the American public loses their minds. So as much as I like welcoming immigrants to the US, public policy needs to keep the numbers low for a generation till the foreign born population is closer to 10%. We need to reform our immigration system and put the worst of the ICE psychopaths in prison, but keep the total numbers low for a while.
I agree with Noah’s analysis and identification of three possible scenarios. Here’s what I would add, both for analytical and framing purposes: The US Constitution has failed. That’s the starting point. The main thing the Constitution was designed to prevent was a tyrannical government led by a “king” or autocrat. The Orange-One-in-Charge has managed to create the structures and mechanisms for implementing tyranny by exploiting weaknesses in the Holy Framers’ sacred constitutional framework. So now what? Tom Geoghegan has some interesting suggestions:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/oct/05/blue-states-democrats-trump
I confess I'm not in love with where the U.S. is headed right now, and given we've never really punished the people who deserve to be punished for things like The Civil War, ending Reconstruction before we CRUSHED all rebellion out of the South for all time(!), Jim Crow, and Watergate? I doubt we're going to get the best case scenario....
But, I doubt we'll get the worst case, too, because Trump is an incompetent loon, "Project 2025" is one of those so-called "bright ideas" that won't survive contact with reality, and Stephen Miller is a bug to be crushed underfoot as soon as Trump either leaves or no longer wants him around.
Though what I really want?
Is to get to STAR TREK's Federation.
You know The Vulcans are watching us right now and going, "You have to be joking...."
"Humor is illogical."
"So are those losers down there!"
We've tried not punishing powerful criminals over and over and over again. It'd be really nice if just once we tried the other thing.
"We've tried not punishing powerful criminals over and over and over again. It'd be really nice if just once we tried the other thing."
I know, I so don't get that part. We should've tried and convicted Nixon when we had the chance—no, we shouldn't have given up on Reconstruction after The Civil War so quickly, and we should've CRUSHED any remnants of The Confederacy under our Yankee boots! (I should talk—during Reconstruction my paternal Great-Grandfather was coming to America to dodge The Kaiser's draft, while my maternal Great-Grandfather was, if you believe my late Grandma, a horse thief out West.)
The book I'm writing has the Russian invasion of The Ukraine as a plot element, and I find myself having to have my Ukrainian female hero have to explain to the two NYPD detectives who are investigating who keeps trying to kill her why the U.S. is a better place to live than Russia...while Trump exists and is in power. I keep having Sam, the female detective, saying "I think you have an overly optimistic view of this country."
It's a balancing act, I don't mind telling you....
Also billionaires
::Pictures Captain Jean-Luc Picard and Commander Will Riker phasering the alien slug-person who created billionaires::
https://youtu.be/g_Vr9LnogLM?si=eRZTVWT3ZJGEjWsx
::smiles::
One thing that I don't think gets talked about nearly as much as it needs to in discussions about the future is the need to at the very least put some kind of legislative restraints on christianity and the church.
You can draw a straight line between christians demanding to be able to "teach the controversy" around evolution vs creation and the staunch denial of objective reality that underpins the entire republican...well, everything. The sadism and bigotry that forms the core republican ethos also draws directly from christianity and its charming penchant for gleeful genocide.
The Johnson amendment was a good idea and a step in the right direction, but it utterly failed. As evidenced by the christian fascist hellhole we're stuck with.
Bare minimum the church needs to lose its tax free status and there will need to be a concerted effort at the IRS and other agencies to crack down on churches trying to wiggle their way out of paying taxes by claiming they're something they're not.
While I'm whistling for the moon, I also think there needs to be a standardized curriculum teaching students about christianity's history of atrocities and its complicity in authoritarian and fascist regimes throughout history. Textbooks are going to have to be re-written to get the christian garbage out of them to begin with anyway. They should also be amended to state that jesus was a myth if he's mentioned at all.
To be fair, all religions should have the same limits.
That I'm not quite on board with. "All religions" didn't lead a fascist takeover of this country, *christianity* did. It's not fair to punish everyone for christianity's bullshit.
Plus, christianity is almost uniquely evil in its application, and inherently toxic in its theology. I know there are christians who think they can make it something that's actually good, but they're trying to turn lead into gold.
eh. most religions have major downsides...and there's some really toxic atheism too.
Some christians have done pretty amazing things in the name of christianity. some have done really horrible things. It's much like other traditions in that.
The atrocities outnumber the good things a huge margin, though. The sexual abuse that's endemic to the SBC and the catholic church alone outweigh anything good that's come out of it, to say nothing of things like the Magdalene laundries or the church's complicity in hitler's regime and the atrocities in the Congo Free State just off the top of my head.
I'm not saying other religions don't have problems, but critiquing other religions isn't my lane. and none of the other religions are the problem in the US. Christianity is, which is why I'm focused on it.
Abolitionism and the civil rights movement are pretty important.
I think it’s kind of pointless to do this kind of accounting, though, as if it’s a person and you can decide on its moral character. It’s a big, complicated tradition that’s lasted for 1000sof years and has really complicated influence on a whole range of movements and historical moments. It doesn’t have any one character or outcome. There’s food and bad; I think the thing to do is just to acknowledge that and try to work to fight the bad and make your own traditions and communities better.
Christianity is a huge umbrella. It includes people who work tirelessly to make life better for marginalized communities because they believe it is their mandate. I’m not comfortable demonizing those people’s beliefs (no matter how ridiculous I personally think they are, I don’t have the corner on absolute truth). By leaving out the dangers of all religions, you leave the door open for another faith to be twisted by the next group of powerful people with authoritarian tendencies. The problem isn’t Christianity- it’s the willingness of people to turn over their thinking to someone else in the name of a god. It’s the willingness of people to say, “if you don’t believe x, you don’t deserve rights.” It’s the willingness of men of various religions to say, “I own the women; god says so.”
These are universal problems with religion, even if Christianity is better at taking advantage of them on behalf of powerful men.
It’s the factory settings of the USA that worries me so much. Despite Europe’s engagement in colonialism and imperialism worldwide, nation-states on that continent didn’t necessarily start out being so explicitly racialized in the ways that America did. And I just recently found out that Canada has a Truth and Reconciliation Day to remember the forced internment of Indigenous people there. Can you imagine if the USA did something similar? America’s original sins keep holding us all back, time after time.
...Possibly because Canada completely abolished slavery when the UK did back in 1834, a movement which started in 1793 with the Act Against Slavery (limited to "Upper Canada" which was British territory then), and did it without fighting a war, then neglecting to PUNISH the perpetrators(!), first.
I see one flaw in your best case scenario. Abolish ICE, but do not liberalize immigration. We have two data points, now and the early 1900s that tell us that when the foreign born population reaches 15%, the American public loses their minds. So as much as I like welcoming immigrants to the US, public policy needs to keep the numbers low for a generation till the foreign born population is closer to 10%. We need to reform our immigration system and put the worst of the ICE psychopaths in prison, but keep the total numbers low for a while.