One problem in assessing polls is that no other information other than "polls say" is included when citing them.
Also different personality types answer poll questions with different intentions. Authoritarian types might see polls as a kind of fealty test where they would give Trump highest points possible for everything and Biden lowest points possible for everything...Non authoritarian types tend to answer polls in more critical 'good faith' ways...The one political poll I ever filled out was for Obama in 2010 and if you were to read my answers you'd think I wasn't going to vote for him in 2012...Nothing could have been further from the truth...
And then there are questions like "do you like the direction the country is going in" or 'How much do you trust the news media" which yield utterly meaningless results for obvious reasons.
The only poll that could come close to predicting voting outcome would be a two part question:
"do you intend to vote in november" and "who do you intend to vote for". Outside of that it's just about 'feelings' and feelings translate into action differently for different types of people...
The misrepresentation is the tacit assumption that low or high polling numbers translate into predictable voting habits
Another historical example about even a much later poll was when Michael Dukakis led GHW Bush by 17 points... in JULY of 1988! I'm sure nobody remembers the Dukakis administration, because GHW Bush (a mediocre candidate at best) closed that significantly larger, and far later gap and won, going away.
By comparison, Trump's current leads in the swing states (if he still has them, as things have been changing in the right direction) are mostly within the stated margins of error, and often less than the undecideds share.
Whereas Trump gained a very large share of the late deciders/undecideds vs. Hillary, he lost them by about the same large margin vs. Biden in 2020.
Likely less a factor than the brutal all-out propaganda assault on Dukakis, led by Lee Atwater. He said he would 'strip the bark off the runt,' and 'make Willie Horton his running mate.' And of course, Dukakis did not have the advantage of incumbency, and made his own multiple campaign mis-steps.
Stuart Stevens, a lifelong R campaign expert, recalls and predicts something similar to how Carter led Reagan substantially in mid-year 1980, and was neck-and-neck into October, until a late collapse saw Reagan trouncing him electorally.
no, that's sort of the myth, but most political scientists think GHWB didn't do much better than fundamentals suggested he should; the Willie Horton ad had little effect on the election, though people thought it did which helped ensure a generation of support for mass incarceration, unfortunately.
I think polls are crap and I’m also terrified that the election results will be the same as today’s polls. So, whatever the polls show, I’m going to canvass and GOTV as hard as I can.
Point taken for the polling.
It’s impossible to overstate how corrosive the electoral college system is for American democracy, especially especially down ballot races.
One problem in assessing polls is that no other information other than "polls say" is included when citing them.
Also different personality types answer poll questions with different intentions. Authoritarian types might see polls as a kind of fealty test where they would give Trump highest points possible for everything and Biden lowest points possible for everything...Non authoritarian types tend to answer polls in more critical 'good faith' ways...The one political poll I ever filled out was for Obama in 2010 and if you were to read my answers you'd think I wasn't going to vote for him in 2012...Nothing could have been further from the truth...
And then there are questions like "do you like the direction the country is going in" or 'How much do you trust the news media" which yield utterly meaningless results for obvious reasons.
The only poll that could come close to predicting voting outcome would be a two part question:
"do you intend to vote in november" and "who do you intend to vote for". Outside of that it's just about 'feelings' and feelings translate into action differently for different types of people...
The misrepresentation is the tacit assumption that low or high polling numbers translate into predictable voting habits
Another historical example about even a much later poll was when Michael Dukakis led GHW Bush by 17 points... in JULY of 1988! I'm sure nobody remembers the Dukakis administration, because GHW Bush (a mediocre candidate at best) closed that significantly larger, and far later gap and won, going away.
By comparison, Trump's current leads in the swing states (if he still has them, as things have been changing in the right direction) are mostly within the stated margins of error, and often less than the undecideds share.
Whereas Trump gained a very large share of the late deciders/undecideds vs. Hillary, he lost them by about the same large margin vs. Biden in 2020.
GHWB was lifted by a good economy I think...
Likely less a factor than the brutal all-out propaganda assault on Dukakis, led by Lee Atwater. He said he would 'strip the bark off the runt,' and 'make Willie Horton his running mate.' And of course, Dukakis did not have the advantage of incumbency, and made his own multiple campaign mis-steps.
Stuart Stevens, a lifelong R campaign expert, recalls and predicts something similar to how Carter led Reagan substantially in mid-year 1980, and was neck-and-neck into October, until a late collapse saw Reagan trouncing him electorally.
no, that's sort of the myth, but most political scientists think GHWB didn't do much better than fundamentals suggested he should; the Willie Horton ad had little effect on the election, though people thought it did which helped ensure a generation of support for mass incarceration, unfortunately.
I think polls are crap and I’m also terrified that the election results will be the same as today’s polls. So, whatever the polls show, I’m going to canvass and GOTV as hard as I can.
good tactic...
Really can't forget Trump can win! It's at the forefront of my mind!