I agree that the decision to retire needs to be strategic, but I think that retiring now would be a bad strategic decision. Any remotely liberal justice would make it extremely difficult to get Manchin and Sinema on board with, especially since they could fall back on "it's too close to the election" as an excuse. And the potential for an open seat could be a motivating factor for conservative voters and donors.
It seems pretty clear that the conservatives on the court aren't crazy enough to blatantly give the election to Trump if Biden clearly wins, so I think the best strategy would be to trust that Biden will still be president this time next year, and for Sotomayor to retire then. Refusing to confirm a justice for six months is very different from refusing to do it for four years, and will be a bad look for conservatives. Either a few of them will fold or it will hurt them in the midterms.
If Trump wins, well, then I have no idea what's going to happen, but I don't think that the differecne between two liberals and three on the supreme court will matter much.
I've seen people make this argument, and it baffles me. We got Jackson on the court with *fewer* senators; Manchin and Sinema and Murkowski, Collins, Romney, are all pretty much guaranteed for any reasonable choice. and in any case, there's again *no reason to think we're going to get better than this in the next decade.*
That makes a lot of sense, I just worry that it's a move that, this close to the election, carries a lot of risk for little reward. Voter feelings towards the Supreme Court right now feels like it so heavily favors Dems that anything that rocks the boat could give the GOP a momentum boost that I'd rather they not get.
I have lost all faith in the Supreme Court and figure it will get exponentially worse in my lifetime. I hate to be such a doomsayer, but even if Sotomayor and Kagan were replaced during Biden's administration, what good would it do the nation? It's a horror show already. (Apologies to everyone, especially Noah, as this was thoughtfully written as always.)
I would be concerned over potential revenge-ratfucking from Manchin and Sinema...Neither are planning on running again (at least under the democratic banner), so whatever ties they have to the party are already null and void. And I can TOTALLY se the broken woman with daddy issues and clinical NPD tanking any new appointments....Lets just say I'd be MUCH MORE strongly in favor of Sotomayor and Kagan's retirements if we had a stronger majority...But it not NOW, then doG knows WHEN we would have such a majority...Its a real game of chicken...But I still tend toward the retirement angle, which I should add needs to be initiated VERY soon if its gonna pass muster...November is creeping up on us
I agree that the decision to retire needs to be strategic, but I think that retiring now would be a bad strategic decision. Any remotely liberal justice would make it extremely difficult to get Manchin and Sinema on board with, especially since they could fall back on "it's too close to the election" as an excuse. And the potential for an open seat could be a motivating factor for conservative voters and donors.
It seems pretty clear that the conservatives on the court aren't crazy enough to blatantly give the election to Trump if Biden clearly wins, so I think the best strategy would be to trust that Biden will still be president this time next year, and for Sotomayor to retire then. Refusing to confirm a justice for six months is very different from refusing to do it for four years, and will be a bad look for conservatives. Either a few of them will fold or it will hurt them in the midterms.
If Trump wins, well, then I have no idea what's going to happen, but I don't think that the differecne between two liberals and three on the supreme court will matter much.
I've seen people make this argument, and it baffles me. We got Jackson on the court with *fewer* senators; Manchin and Sinema and Murkowski, Collins, Romney, are all pretty much guaranteed for any reasonable choice. and in any case, there's again *no reason to think we're going to get better than this in the next decade.*
That makes a lot of sense, I just worry that it's a move that, this close to the election, carries a lot of risk for little reward. Voter feelings towards the Supreme Court right now feels like it so heavily favors Dems that anything that rocks the boat could give the GOP a momentum boost that I'd rather they not get.
I don’t see it; hearings would just force Rs to talk about abortion, which seems like a good thing.
"feels like it so heavily favors Dems that anything that rocks the boat could give the GOP a momentum"
I'd wager the opposite...
"here's again *no reason to think we're going to get better than this in the next decade.*"
Therein lies the rub
I have lost all faith in the Supreme Court and figure it will get exponentially worse in my lifetime. I hate to be such a doomsayer, but even if Sotomayor and Kagan were replaced during Biden's administration, what good would it do the nation? It's a horror show already. (Apologies to everyone, especially Noah, as this was thoughtfully written as always.)
This is a fascinating piece with novel yet sound logic.
Never heard it before in all my time in progressive circles, and it commands my respect.
Thanks again for such excellent articulation.
I would be concerned over potential revenge-ratfucking from Manchin and Sinema...Neither are planning on running again (at least under the democratic banner), so whatever ties they have to the party are already null and void. And I can TOTALLY se the broken woman with daddy issues and clinical NPD tanking any new appointments....Lets just say I'd be MUCH MORE strongly in favor of Sotomayor and Kagan's retirements if we had a stronger majority...But it not NOW, then doG knows WHEN we would have such a majority...Its a real game of chicken...But I still tend toward the retirement angle, which I should add needs to be initiated VERY soon if its gonna pass muster...November is creeping up on us
Manchin and Sinema both regularly vote for D judicial appointments. There's no real reason to think that's likely to change for a SC judge.
also several Rs are likely to vote for a reasonable nominee, as they did for Jackson.
True that...Perhaps my hatred of them has clouded my vision...
(:
But like I say, if not now, when? Who KNOWS when we'll have it better than now?
Loyal to the rule of law.
Sure they are. 😂😂😂😂