Low Unemployment Is A Vital Progressive Goal

The left shouldn’t dismiss it just to spite Biden.

Image: Striking UAW workers listen to a speech by President Biden. Tuesday, September 26, 2023, in Belleville, Michigan. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

Progressives are currently disgusted with Biden over his support for the horrific and apparently endless violence in Gaza. I think that disgust is warranted, and I share it.

But I’m also concerned about the way that opposition to Biden domestically has led some on the left to dismiss some real progressive gains and goals. We should criticize Biden where he is awful—and I think his policy in Gaza is truly awful. But we shouldn’t denounce progressive policies just because Biden has endorsed them.

Specifically, unemployment in the US has been below 4% for 22 months, the longest such run since the late 1960s.  Over 14 million jobs have been created since Biden was inaugurated. Some of that is the economy recovering from covid. But the US also created more jobs in 2023, after the covid recession was largely over, than were created in any year of the Trump administration.

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I’ve seen many on the left dismiss these gains as irrelevant. They argue that rising prices mean that unemployment gains don’t matter, or they suggest that long term inequality in the US economy—the poor safety net, the shaky-at-best health care system—means that job growth isn’t really relevant to most people.

This is not only wrong; it’s dangerous. The right is eager to erase job gains in the name of price reduction. The left needs to fight for workers no matter who is in office—and reducing unemployment is a huge way to help workers.

Unemployment has real costs

The devastating effects of unemployment seem fairly obvious, but it’s worth enumerating them. First, and perhaps most importantly, employment is a key factor which keeps people out of poverty. According to the UN, a 1% increase in unemployment leads to a .4 to .7% increase in poverty rates globally. Closer to home, in Chicago, as just one example, employees over 16 generally have poverty rates of 6.8%; unemployed people’s poverty rate in the city is 39.7%.

Unemployment pushes people into poverty; it also pushes people into mental distress. One recent analysis of 33 studies found that unemployment is linked to depression and anxiety. There’s also evidence that unemployment increases risks of suicide.

Economist Claudia Sahm points out that low unemployment doesn’t just help people by getting them jobs; it helps them by improving the jobs they get. When workers have more bargaining power, bosses tend to offer better jobs. Which is why, Sahm argues, full-time employment is outpacing part-time employment. Part-time jobs pay less, have less regular hours, and are just generally worse for workers.

Unemployment is also closely correlated with union power. When unemployment rises by 1 point, support for unions falls by about 2.6 points. Support for unions in 2023 was at 67%— the highest number since the late 1960s, when, not coincidentally, unemployment was also at rock bottom. Strong support for unions and low unemployment is certainly buttressing union organizing—as I discussed at length in this piece.

Low unemployment helps keep people out of poverty individually. And it also helps build collective progressive power by buttressing labor’s standing. It’s in part because of labor victories in numerous sectors that wages have been outpacing inflation over 2023, and have now put the economy ahead of where it was pre-pandemic. Lower-income and middle-income families especially have seen real gains.

Conservatives hate low unemployment

Conservatives don’t want labor unions to make gains, and they want workers to be impoverished and compliant. For those reasons, the right has consistently opposed efforts to reduce unemployment. Instead, they’ve insisted that government and the federal reserve focus on lowering inflation.

Inflation and rising prices can harm low income people, especially if it’s extended and if it outpaces wage growth. But the wealthy are harmed by inflation even if wages outpace inflation because the wealthy hold debt, and inflation erodes the real value of those debts. And again, the wealthy dislike low unemployment because it empowers labor, and helps make people feel like they can fight for better pay and better conditions and win.

This is why the right has consistently backed tight money policies and opposes stimulus spending. They want inflation low, and they want unemployment high.

Low unemployment isn’t everything. But it’s a big deal.

Low unemployment doesn’t solve every problem. The US social safety net still has huge gaps; our health care system is inefficient and cruel. Homelessness in the US is currently up despite the decrease in unemployment. Many people still face real challenges and real difficulties in the current economy.

But a drop in unemployment is important and valuable in itself. And it is important to say that, because drops in unemployment are contested. The right does not want laborers to have more leverage than capitalists. The wealthy do not want unions to build power. If progressives abandon their commitment to low unemployment and the stimulus policies which fuel it, Republicans will happily take the policy win and put in place brutal austerity policies which will keep inflation low, push unemployment high, and kneecap unions.

I think that low unemployment is a reason to vote for Biden over Trump. But in a lot of ways the person here is less important than the principle. Which is why, I beg you, whatever you think of Biden, don’t abandon low unemployment as a goal. Don’t let the GOP win the policy argument. Don’t abandon workers and don’t abandon labor. Low unemployment matters. Progressives should fight for it, no matter who is in office.