The GOP Ending The Fillibuster Would Be Bad

This is not something we want to have happen.

Like every other Democrat with a pulse who is not in the Senate, I was enraged and deeply disheartened by the flatulent capitulation to the GOP on the shutdown and healthcare this week. I don’t really have it in me to go into a blow by blow analysis. David Bernstein, David Dayen, and Josh Marshall all have good discussions which manage to find something to say beyond an extended howl of feral despair.

—

Everything Is Horrible relies on your support to keep chugging along. If you find my writing valuable, please consider contributing so I can continue to provide valuableness. It’s $5/month, $50/year.

—

I do think it’s worth responding to one point that’s come up in the back and forth. In asking why Senators decided to cave, one plausible rationale that’s often floated is that some of them may have been afraid that the GOP was getting ready to nuke the filibuster, ending the 60 vote Senate. A common response to that point is that the filibuster is bad and silly, that it has stymied a lot of Democratic legislation over the years, and that we should let the GOP kill it so that we can advance our own agenda when we get into office.

I agree that the filibuster sucks, and that it’s been a huge barrier to progressive legislation. But I also agree with political scientist Jonathan Bernstein that many Democrats “are underestimating the policy changes this Congress and this president would likely pass after a full nuke.”

What kind of policies are we talking about? Well, first remember that Donald Trump just went to the Supreme Court to try to freeze SNAP benefits and starve children, even though Trump has the money to make those payments and is required by law to do so. Then consider that Republicans have been fighting for 40 days to ensure that their constituents health insurance payments double, and have been willing to fight for that outcome even as it means (again) starving children and borking the nation’s air travel over Thanksgiving. Finally, note that the House and Senate voted in lockstep to pass brutal and massively unpopular cuts to Medicaid this summer. And last, recall that the Supreme Court declared that presidents are immune from prosecution entirely because they didn’t want Trump to be constrained from committing crimes.

The Republicans currently have a narrow majority in the House, a fairly substantial 6 vote majority in the Senate, an overwhelming 6-3 majority in the Supreme Court, and the presidency. Neither the president, the Supreme Court, the House, nor the Senate, appears to be constrained by any concern for the well-being, health, safety, or comfort of the public, much less by popular opinion. In most cases, they don’t seem to be concerned about the Constitution, except insofar as they seem determined to shred it.

There are still a few minor guardrails. One of those appears to be the filibuster. That’s why Trump wants to gut it. But House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune do not. That’s probably because Johnson and Thune would both prefer to give themselves and their caucus some room to maneuver; the filibuster means that members can vote for some rabid violent weirdness to palliate the base (and their own slavering shittiness) without having to worry that said rabid violent weirdness will actually pass. Johnson and especially Thune probably also have a certain level of status quo bias. Senators don’t want to change the rules of the chamber unless they have to, because they like to see themselves as statesman, even when they are fascist assholes.

But it’s likely Thune has some breaking point. If that were reached, and the filibuster ended, what might the GOP do with one of its few limits gone?

One obvious move would be to criminalize abortion nationwide—note that the Senate could pass that without the votes of Murkowski or Collins. Another would be sweeping nationwide attacks on trans healthcare, maybe just for children, but quite possibly for adults as well. (In order to get Democratic votes, the Senate appropriations bill that was just passed notably killed a bunch of anti trans riders in the House bill).

You could also expect a lot of attacks on voting rights. Congress would I think likely just eliminate what’s left of the VRA (the SC may do this…but they also may not.) Republicans might eliminate mail in voting and early voting; they could also pass nationwide and very restrictive voter ID laws.

The ACA would probably be dead. It’s quite possible the Republicans would also take the opportunity to further slash Medicaid, and maybe even Medicare. I’d worry about what they’d do to Social Security too. We already know that a lot of people in the Trump White House see this moment as their last, best chance to destroy the New Deal safety net and impose a withering fascist nightmare of austerity forever. The filibuster is not constraining them much. I don’t think we want to learn the extent to which it is though.

There are some nightmare scenarios that probably wouldn’t happen; the Supreme Court just upheld the Constitutional right to marriage equality, for example. I’d guess Republicans woulnd’t have much enthusiasm for giving Trump tariff authority if (as seems likely) the court strikes down his current nonsense. And of course if Democrats managed to overcome GOP vote rigging and ever actually got a Congressional majority and the presidency, they could overturn many of these policies.

That’s a big “if” though, especially when you’re looking at at least 2 or 3 years of nationwide abortion bans, no ACA, no trans health care. It’s a recipe for truly horrific misery, and while there could be an electoral backlash, that wouldn’t help the women bleeding out from sepsis, or all those unable to pay for life saving treatments, or people who rely on SNAP who couldn’t feed their kids.

Once a reckless, rabid fascist party seizes control of your country, most of your options are bad. But that doesn’t mean that things can’t get worse. As a general rule, things can always get worse. And one way that things could get significantly worse right now is if Republicans nuked the filibuster and could completely sideline Democrats in the legislative process.

That doesn’t meant Democrats should stop fighting, or should cave on important priorities like health care or the power of the purse. But I think people should think twice before cavalierly dismissing the dangers of this Senate, with this president, this House, and this Supreme Court, enacting any and all legislation with only 50 Senators.