I do want Haley to win. But I did just place a ten to one bet on her losing. Was willing to make it $100 to $10 but my counter party insisted on only $10 to $1. There's no risk of Haley winning this thing, but it would be great if she made Trump sweat at least a little. I know folks cross party voting in NH where it is easy, so I'll predict distant second in Iowa, eking out first in NH and then a disastrously distant second in her home state of South Carolina effectively ending the run. She might stick around through super Tuesday but at the end of super tuesday it will be mathematically impossible for her to win the nomination. Hope I'm wrong. And you did just prompt me to look and see that I can vote in the R primary here in Texas so now I will.
well, I hope they are right, it will make it feel more consequential vote for her in the TX primary if she's actually still in the race in some sense at that point.
I agree with you. Any vote for Haley is bad for Trump and therefore good for the country. Here's a hypothetical question for you, unmoored to reality so you have to pretend.
Pretend that today, right now, you could guarantee that Haley would be the next president. Would you take that result? In other words, a Trump presidency is no longer a threat but President Haley is the price to pay.
I'd take it, thinking that a certain "bad" result is better than a 50% chance of a potentially disastrous result.
probably not? I think Haley would be pretty disastrous. the gop right now is extremely untrustworthy, and Haley's "moderateness" is paper thin. she's said she'd pardon trump! which I think would be really bad.
She would be disastrous, but only for 4 or 8 years. I don't think she would try to remain President for life. otoh, Trump is mortal, so he could drop dead sooner than that. Trying to calculate the odds is above my pay grade.
I think some folks are forgetting we're talking about primaries here? Noah has said clearly elsewhere that he advocates voting Democrat in the general election. But here he's outlined a really interesting strategy for disrupting the GOP from the inside before they even get to the general elections. I'm all for it!
IF it does. There are a number of ways this idea of yours can still go pear-shaped, Noah:
1) Donald Trump dies, or has such a serious stroke or heart condition he can no longer campaign.
2) Donald Trump is convicted of Election Fraud, Insurrection, or Treason for his Mar-A-Lago stash before Election Day, which cuts his base considerably because much of it doesn't consider him a traitor or a seditionist, but if he was declared GUILTY!? They'd have to think long and hard before pulling the lever for him.
3) His superrich backers decide Haley's the better bet, Trump can't make up the shortfall with small donations from his suckers, and Fox News decides he's more of a liability than an asset. Any one of these things would cut into his "electability", and I think if one pillar collapses they all start to.
4) For those of you who believe Vladimir Putin is some global malevolent magician * rather than an ex-spy playing games with International Electoral Politics (as we ALSO do, frequently!)? Putin falls from power, or is pushed (or shot, or blown up real good!), and his successor decides Trump's not worth the trouble, especially with the Ukraine in a stalemate and Russia bleeding money and soldiers.
____
* I know Putin engaged in election interference in 2016—and 2020, 2012, 2008, and any other year where he was in a position to stir the pot. What I doubt is that Hillary Rodham Clinton's loss is due to anything he did rather than that she was so certain of her "inevitable" victory that she didn't bother to aggressively campaign, unlike Donald Trump who LOVES rallies and crowds shouting his name!
If Putin is so all-powerful, why did Biden defeat Trump so handily in 2020...?
2. Why would they think long and hard? They're rabidly keen to put a fraud and a rapist back into the Whitehouse. It's way past the point where the outcome of any legal processes will change their minds.
Yep. It's lies, all lies. It's a political witch hunt. Trump has been saying this since before 2016. For reasons beyond my understanding, tens of millions of Americans believe him.
It's like a mass psychosis. No amount of column inches can explain away this level of insanity. Albeit, the US media continues to write about Trump and his supporters as though they have legitimacy.
I dont' get how voting for Haley would change anything here. Trump having some sort of catastrophy would create huge mess in the primary. one way or the other.
I'm worried that the mess will rebound in Haley's favor, and a lot of independent Republican-leaning voters will vote for her over Trump if Trump's not around.
how would a vote for haley change that? if trump has a catastrophe, Haley's most likely to benefit anyway right now. but the fallout would be such a mess that the gop would probably take a huge hit anyway. given how deep in conspiracy theories they are, if trump dies they'll probably blame whoever's the gop nominee anyway.
So many variables to factor for these kinds of forecasts! I see several signs that both Put(a)in and El Douche are increasingly desperate as they slowly but surely are losing on several fronts and the walls are literally closing in… But what about the one major part of the fascist alliance that may not be so desperate: How is Koch doing these days? Haley is his current pick - as both Koch and the global mafia have been trying unsuccessfully to flush el “unflushable” drumpf down the toilet.
But at least we can indeed add a few booby traps to their political path… No pasaran, whoever their flag-bearer is in a few months: the complement to this is to make sure we get our coalition to show up.
What worries me about your thesis, Noah, is that we thought "No way in HELL can Donald Trump win the Republican nomination!" in 2016. A reality TeeVee clown who's a joke in his home state and the the two states surrounding it? Oh, Puh-LEEZE! He'll be out of the running before Super Tuesday—which at the time I think was all he wanted, to make enough noise that he could start his own competing Right Wing news outlet with himself as the figurehead and frequent contributor. It wasn't until he won, and kept winning, that he realized he might actually be the Republican candidate....
Then, when against all odds he won the Republican nomination (blame Hillary, not Putin, for THAT one!), the odds of him beating Hillary Rodham Clinton was even more ridiculous. Even I, who loathe that Swanning Entitled NeoLiberal Hypocrite, was so certain she'd crush DT in the General that I could despise her without guilt, because—who in their right mind would vote for HIM, anyway? He was like a badly-trained performing seal—wave a fish at him and he'd lunge for it.
I'm considering changing my registration to R to vote for her in the primary, but the NJ primaries are so late(June) that I don't think it'll make a difference.
I do want Haley to win. But I did just place a ten to one bet on her losing. Was willing to make it $100 to $10 but my counter party insisted on only $10 to $1. There's no risk of Haley winning this thing, but it would be great if she made Trump sweat at least a little. I know folks cross party voting in NH where it is easy, so I'll predict distant second in Iowa, eking out first in NH and then a disastrously distant second in her home state of South Carolina effectively ending the run. She might stick around through super Tuesday but at the end of super tuesday it will be mathematically impossible for her to win the nomination. Hope I'm wrong. And you did just prompt me to look and see that I can vote in the R primary here in Texas so now I will.
yeah. I've seen several smart commenters who think she can make it to super tuesday...but we'll see I guess. (No one thinks she's going to win.)
well, I hope they are right, it will make it feel more consequential vote for her in the TX primary if she's actually still in the race in some sense at that point.
I agree with you. Any vote for Haley is bad for Trump and therefore good for the country. Here's a hypothetical question for you, unmoored to reality so you have to pretend.
Pretend that today, right now, you could guarantee that Haley would be the next president. Would you take that result? In other words, a Trump presidency is no longer a threat but President Haley is the price to pay.
I'd take it, thinking that a certain "bad" result is better than a 50% chance of a potentially disastrous result.
probably not? I think Haley would be pretty disastrous. the gop right now is extremely untrustworthy, and Haley's "moderateness" is paper thin. she's said she'd pardon trump! which I think would be really bad.
That is a good point. Trump would still be "present."
And I agree that she is not moderate. I think she makes the most sense for Trump as VP.
She would be disastrous, but only for 4 or 8 years. I don't think she would try to remain President for life. otoh, Trump is mortal, so he could drop dead sooner than that. Trying to calculate the odds is above my pay grade.
Above mine too, and my answer is certainly influenced by embarrassment at the idea that Trump would be elected.
I think some folks are forgetting we're talking about primaries here? Noah has said clearly elsewhere that he advocates voting Democrat in the general election. But here he's outlined a really interesting strategy for disrupting the GOP from the inside before they even get to the general elections. I'm all for it!
Disagree. Any vote for a Republican furthers the peril to this country.
??? I don't understand this. How does pushing the GOP towards chaos imperil the country? it does the opposite!
IF it does. There are a number of ways this idea of yours can still go pear-shaped, Noah:
1) Donald Trump dies, or has such a serious stroke or heart condition he can no longer campaign.
2) Donald Trump is convicted of Election Fraud, Insurrection, or Treason for his Mar-A-Lago stash before Election Day, which cuts his base considerably because much of it doesn't consider him a traitor or a seditionist, but if he was declared GUILTY!? They'd have to think long and hard before pulling the lever for him.
3) His superrich backers decide Haley's the better bet, Trump can't make up the shortfall with small donations from his suckers, and Fox News decides he's more of a liability than an asset. Any one of these things would cut into his "electability", and I think if one pillar collapses they all start to.
4) For those of you who believe Vladimir Putin is some global malevolent magician * rather than an ex-spy playing games with International Electoral Politics (as we ALSO do, frequently!)? Putin falls from power, or is pushed (or shot, or blown up real good!), and his successor decides Trump's not worth the trouble, especially with the Ukraine in a stalemate and Russia bleeding money and soldiers.
____
* I know Putin engaged in election interference in 2016—and 2020, 2012, 2008, and any other year where he was in a position to stir the pot. What I doubt is that Hillary Rodham Clinton's loss is due to anything he did rather than that she was so certain of her "inevitable" victory that she didn't bother to aggressively campaign, unlike Donald Trump who LOVES rallies and crowds shouting his name!
If Putin is so all-powerful, why did Biden defeat Trump so handily in 2020...?
2. Why would they think long and hard? They're rabidly keen to put a fraud and a rapist back into the Whitehouse. It's way past the point where the outcome of any legal processes will change their minds.
Because a significant percentage think it's all "political" and that Trump isn't "really guilty" of any of that—unlike Hunter Biden, say!
Yep. It's lies, all lies. It's a political witch hunt. Trump has been saying this since before 2016. For reasons beyond my understanding, tens of millions of Americans believe him.
It's like a mass psychosis. No amount of column inches can explain away this level of insanity. Albeit, the US media continues to write about Trump and his supporters as though they have legitimacy.
I dont' get how voting for Haley would change anything here. Trump having some sort of catastrophy would create huge mess in the primary. one way or the other.
I'm worried that the mess will rebound in Haley's favor, and a lot of independent Republican-leaning voters will vote for her over Trump if Trump's not around.
After 2016? I'm not taking any chances.
how would a vote for haley change that? if trump has a catastrophe, Haley's most likely to benefit anyway right now. but the fallout would be such a mess that the gop would probably take a huge hit anyway. given how deep in conspiracy theories they are, if trump dies they'll probably blame whoever's the gop nominee anyway.
If you want a Republican in office, fine. I don’t. Ever.
did you read the piece? I do not want a republican in office! I want the GOP to tear itself apart!
So many variables to factor for these kinds of forecasts! I see several signs that both Put(a)in and El Douche are increasingly desperate as they slowly but surely are losing on several fronts and the walls are literally closing in… But what about the one major part of the fascist alliance that may not be so desperate: How is Koch doing these days? Haley is his current pick - as both Koch and the global mafia have been trying unsuccessfully to flush el “unflushable” drumpf down the toilet.
I am inclined to agree with Noah that a vast majority of trumpist cult members - christian nationalists - would find it very difficult to switch allegiances to Haley - an obvious candidate for a witch-hunting conspiracy as a woman and “not really” White®️©️™️. Could Koch and the “evangelical leaders” (con artists) manage to redirect their “sheep” to a new savior? I am not sure…
But at least we can indeed add a few booby traps to their political path… No pasaran, whoever their flag-bearer is in a few months: the complement to this is to make sure we get our coalition to show up.
What worries me about your thesis, Noah, is that we thought "No way in HELL can Donald Trump win the Republican nomination!" in 2016. A reality TeeVee clown who's a joke in his home state and the the two states surrounding it? Oh, Puh-LEEZE! He'll be out of the running before Super Tuesday—which at the time I think was all he wanted, to make enough noise that he could start his own competing Right Wing news outlet with himself as the figurehead and frequent contributor. It wasn't until he won, and kept winning, that he realized he might actually be the Republican candidate....
Then, when against all odds he won the Republican nomination (blame Hillary, not Putin, for THAT one!), the odds of him beating Hillary Rodham Clinton was even more ridiculous. Even I, who loathe that Swanning Entitled NeoLiberal Hypocrite, was so certain she'd crush DT in the General that I could despise her without guilt, because—who in their right mind would vote for HIM, anyway? He was like a badly-trained performing seal—wave a fish at him and he'd lunge for it.
Yep, Nostradamus has nothing on me.... 😱 🤦♂️ 🧐
I'm considering changing my registration to R to vote for her in the primary, but the NJ primaries are so late(June) that I don't think it'll make a difference.