Yes, Protests Matter

No Kings was important

No Kings protest in Chicago

The No Kings protests on Saturday were some of the largest in the country’s history; data analyst G. Elliot Morris estimates that some 4 to 6 million people turned out. That’s around 2% of the US population— not quite at the 3.5% population turn out threshold that some scholars suggest generally leads to regime change, but an impressive showing.

Now, though, it is over. Trump is still president, ICE is still kidnapping people, and we’re still careening down the icy road to fascism. Did the protests even matter?

I think the answer is “yes.” And since I’ve seen a fair amount of confused discussion about protests and how they work, I thought I’d take a moment to talk about some ways in which protests can be valuable even when they don’t instantly topple the government.

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When Trump is less popular, more people resist

Following Trump’s victory in the November elections last year, Trump’s approval was about as high as it’s ever been. It cracked 50% as Americans who don’t pay attention blithely hoped that change would be good and that Trump would usher in an era of lower inflation, economic boomtimes, and vicious cruelty aimed at immigrants or whatever other marginalized group it was deemed okay to hunt for sport.

Trump’s electoral victory and relatively strong numbers made it seem like he had a sweeping mandate—and politicians and institutions of various sorts rushed to get on his good side. Columbia University essentially turned over its administrative decision making to MAGA; the law firm Paul, Weiss agreed to do $40 million in pro bono work for Trump as long as he wouldn’t be mean to them; Democrats rushed to sign onto the viciously racist and anti-immigrant Laken Riley Act and then broke their own filibuster rather than challenge Trump on a continuing funding resolution. No one wanted to stand up to Trump. Everyone wanted to be the first to remove their spines.

It was bleak. And it is still bleak! But the air of inevitability has gone out of Trump’s stupid hairpiece. And while people are still slithering like quisling invertebrates over Trump’s stumpy toes, there’s also a fair amount of resistance.

Harvard and other schools are fighting Trump’s efforts to do to them what it did to Columbia; many law firms are also fighting back, in part because those that caved like Paul, Wise have lost clients and reputation. Congressional Democratic resistance is still a work in progress, unfortunately—but, as a positive example, California Senator Alex Padilla on Meet the Press this Sunday accurately noted that Trump’s polling on immigration is a lot weaker than some topline numbers might suggest.

The polling is part of why resistance seems less futile right now; Trump’s currently mired in the low 40s; his numbers on inflation are -19, on trade are -12, and he’s even -1 on immigration.

Those ugly numbers have also translated into ugly election results. The biggest loss was in a key state Wisconsin Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, a state Trump narrowly carried; the Democratic candidate won it by 11. Democrats have continued to crush Republicans in specials; last week a Democrat won a state House race in Tulsa, Oklahoma by 69 points. Harris won the district by 19, which means there was a 50 point swing against the GOP.

Protests show people that Trump is unpopular

Politicians do follow polls and keep track of who’s winning which races or of who’s up on the generic Congressional ballot for midterms (Democrats, by 8.) But not everyone is watching state House races in Tulsa, and not everyone necessarily is obsessively refreshing poll trackers.

When 5 million people take to the streets, though, local and national news outlets will report on it. People who don’t pay attention to news may well stumble on their neighbors marching through the center of town. It’s hard to miss that a lot of people oppose Trump when those people are standing right in front of you waving signs. Especially when you turn on the news and see Trump’s sad, empty birthday celebration where nobody showed up to watch the expensive tanks.

Just as important, a big show of strength makes people feel—well, strong. Trump takes up a lot of space in the media; he and his sycophants and enablers can feel ubiquitous and undefeatable. The No Kings protest were a reminder that there really are a ton of people who are willing to march and fight for democracy, and who reject Trump’s agenda of violence, cruelty, and despair.

Large scale protests show that there is a lot of enthusiastic opposition to Trump. For those wavering on whether to resist Trump, the protests provide incentives not to cave by reminding the would-be cavees that if they stand strong people will have their back and that if they don’t they may face real reputational damage. And for those who oppose Trump, the protests let them know that they’re not alone.

That can all seem abstract and wishy washy. But think of it this way. What if, this weekend, MAGA had had sweeping, nationwide rallies in which 5 million people had taken to the streets to bellow about how much they love Trump and to declare their hatred of immigrants?

I don’t know about you, but I would be depressed and somewhat traumatized. I would think that we were in real trouble if that many people were passionate enough about Trump’s agenda to march in the streets. It would feel overwhelming; it would feel like we were going to lose. If people marched for evil, it would feel like it mattered.. So we should still think it matters when people come together to demonstrate for the right thing.

You need to build to disruptive protest

The No Kings protest was brief, nonviolent, and not disruptive. It was not like the protests during the Civil Rights Movement, which were designed to peacefully close down businesses or thoroughfares in order to highlight police violence and chaos. It wasn’t like the recent South Korean protests against authoritarianism, which included 16 million people (a third of the population) and ground the country to a halt. It wasn’t as sustained as the George Floyd protests in 2020.

That’s all true. But it’s also true that building a protest movement in a massive country with a powerful fascist party is a huge logistical task. The sheer size of the US makes it hard to shut down transportation or government functions nationwide. The still widespread support for MAGA, especially in certain regions, makes it a challenge to build a protest movement that feels universal and speaks with one voice.

That doesn’t mean that disruptive protest is impossible. It does mean, though, that disruptive protest is something we probably need to build towards. And one way to build towards it is to get people used to showing up in the streets.

We’re only five months into Trump’s term, and we’ve already had one of the biggest single day protests in American history. Trump is likely to become less popular; he’s likely to do more outrageous and horrible things. And that means there’s likely to be more protests—and quite possibly bigger and more aggressive ones.

No Kings was important in itself. But it’s also important because it could well be a start, and because it provides the basis for escalation. Defeating fascism is going to be a long, ugly slog. Protests are an important part of building power and inspiring resistance. And one reason protests are important is because protests pave the way for more protest, just as resistance creates the possibility of more resistance.